Long-simmering tensions between Hizbullah and Israel have erupted into conflict. We estimate that nearly 1.5m Lebanese and around 2m Israelis—roughly a quarter and a fifth of their respective populations—live within 1km of a strike or falling debris.

President Donald Trump’s rapid and dramatic turn from threatening to kill “an entire civilization” in Iran on the morning of April 7, 2026, to announcing a two-week ceasefire later that day left many observers with a sense of whiplash.

The escalating U.S.–Israeli war with Iran and Tehran’s retaliation against Gulf neighbours have severely disrupted Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and global oil and gas flows. Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh processing hub on March 18 triggered a wave of retaliatory attacks across the Gulf that hit refineries,